Mars Group Kenya Audit Report on 2013 Kenyan Presidential Election Results

Mars Group Kenya Audit Report on 2013 Kenyan Presidential Election Results
Audit Methodology
All Form 34 documents audited are in the public domain and were released by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) on its official website in April 2013. The IEBC told the Supreme Court that ALL the Form 34’s from all polling streams were available on its website. An Audit of the Form 34’s on the IEBC website reveals that 2,585 forms are missing.
The results as published in the available Form 34’s were recorded in the Audit as follows;
Total number of registered voters for the polling station.
Number of spoilt ballot papers.
Total number of votes cast.
Number of rejected votes.
Number of disputed votes.
Number of rejection objected to votes.
Total number of valid votes cast.
The results for valid votes cast in favour of each candidate.
The audit captures whether the Presiding Officer, Deputy Presiding Officer and the Political Parties Agents duly signed the Form 34 and also captures any alterations. Once the data was captured, we then independently tallied the figures to see if they added up at the stream level. The totals were then aggregated upwards to ward, constituency, county and finally national level.
Kenya Presidential Election 2013 National Audit Overview
The Following was audited:
Constituencies 291
Counties 48
Wards 1,454
Polling Stations 24,622
Polling Streams 32,095
Findings:
2,585 out of 32,095 polling streams were missing Form 34’s on the Official IEBC website and therefore the results and votes of the missing streams were not included in the Audit.
COUNTY MISSING FORM 34’S (STREAMS)
Mombasa 14
Kwale 1
Kilifi 79
Tana River 0
Lamu 2
Taita Taveta 1
Garissa 4
Wajir 2
Mandera 3
Marsabit 8
Isiolo 6
Meru 13
Tharaka – Nithi 12
Embu 6
Kitui 228
Machakos 135
Makueni 32
Nyandarua 17
Nyeri 199
Kirinyaga 20
Murang'a 18
Kiambu 172
Turkana 20
West Pokot 68
Samburu 0
Trans Nzoia 34
Uasin Gishu 23
Elgeyo/Marakwet 1
Nandi 8
Baringo 13
Laikipia 37
Nakuru 22
Narok 20
Kajiado 9
Kericho 14
Bomet 149
Kakamega 97
Vihiga 227
Bungoma 173
Busia 18
Siaya 182
Kisumu 68
Homa Bay 126
Migori 61
Kisii 150
Nyamira 18
Nairobi 74
Diaspora 1
Total Missing Forms 2,585
The Audit identified discrepancies between the Presidential tally announced by the IEBC and the figures computed from the Form 34 sheets made public by the IEBC. We do note however, that whereas the missing stream Form 34s may reduce the overall discrepancy in county election result; the Form 34 discrepancies suggests a serious tallying problem that could alter the official final National Presidential vote tally per candidate that was announced by the IEBC.
The Audit discrepancies noted hereunder relate to internal errors detected within the Form 34 documents that were examined (a total of 29,510 out of 32,095 Form 34s were examined).
VALID votes: 848 Form 34s have discrepancies – Audited votes cast per candidate do not tally with the Total Number of Valid Votes cast as recorded on Form 34.
CAST votes: 2,140 Form 34s have discrepancies – Audited cast votes (audited valid votes + number of rejected votes) do not tally with the Total Number of Votes Cast as recorded on Form 34.
REGISTERED voters 51 Form 34s have discrepancies: The Total Number of Votes Cast as recorded in Form 34 exceeds the Total Number of Registered Voters in 51 Polling Streams.
The Audit of the available form 34’s revealed that the Official results for the Presidential Election as announced by the IEBC cannot be correct unless the missing 2,585 Form 34s contain the following VALID VOTES cast for each Candidate as follows:
Summary of Votes per candidate
CANDIDATE VOTES
Mohamed Abduba Dida 3,611
Martha Wangari Karua 4,238
Peter Kenneth 5,875
Uhuru Kenyatta 360,370
James Legilisho Kiyiapi 3,879
Musalia Mudavadi 96,293
Paul Kibugi Muite 1,949
Raila Odinga 467,305
Total Votes 943,520
The distribution of missing forms by county and details of number of votes each candidate MUST HAVE from the missing 2,585 Form 34s for the IEBC announced results to be correct and valid are tabulated below:
Recommendations:
To IEBC: The only way to confirm that the IEBC's tally is correct, and therefore valid is to allow independent scrutiny of the 2,585 missing Form 34s. It is in the public interest that IEBC account for the 943,520 votes ostensibly contained in the 2,585 Form 34s which have not been made public. We strongly recommend that for the sake of public confidence in the IEBC's conduct of the 2013 Presidential Election, the IEBC, in the public interest, should immediately make available for scrutiny the 2,585 stream Form 34 documents listed at this link: 2,585 missing Form 34s.
To IEBC: The audit reveals widely disparate standards in the recording of results in Form 34 by presiding officers. The future contracting of presiding officers who served in the 2013 elections should be predicated on an assessment of the accuracy of their work in 2013. The audit has been able to capture presiding officers who should not in any future election work for IEBC, and those whose work is commendable.
To Parliament: It has taken Mars Group over 4 months to scrutinise and analyse the Form 34s available to it; yet Presidential petitions must be lodged within 14 days of an election. There is need to revisit the Constitutional provisions prescribing the period for lodging and hearing of presidential petitions.
Detailed Audit for Each County: 2013 Kenya Presidential Election County Results
Detailed Audit for Each Constituency: 2013 Kenya Presidential Election Constituency Results
Detailed Audit for Each Ward: 2013 Kenya Presidential Election Ward Results
See links above for Audit details per county and drill down for constituencies, wards, polling stations and polling streams.